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Monday, March 7, 2011
NZD-USD Might be Finding Support
The New Zealand Dollar has been under a serious pressure lately. First, the devastating earthquake in Christchurch dimmed the country economic prospects, which was immediately reflected in its currency. That was followed by a suggestion that the interest rates will need to be cut in order to facilitate recovery from this disaster, which sent the NZD down even more.
Combined, these two events cause over 250 pips sell off in the NZD-USD in a span of a week. Currently the price is approaching 0.7350-0.7360 area, which could provide support, even if temporary, for the embattled currency.
Is it Enough?
This general level provided reaction in the price before. In mid December, the NZD-USD found a support here, while back in mid 2010 a strong resistance existed here. A solid example of a classic change of polarity principle. Since price areas of such importance often attract more and larger buy and sell orders, a reaction is very likely.
We can the same situation on a Three Line Break chart, which smoothes out the price considerably. It also suggests possible support here. Of course, both charts also agree, that if this level does not hold, the NZD-USD could fall down more, perhaps even under 0.7000.
USD-CAD at a Critical Support
The Canadian Dollar picked up momentum recently, by some accounts, in response to the rising crude oil prices. Whatever the case is, the CAD has appreciated during the last few weeks, especially in relation to the US Dollar.
After spending weeks near the parity level, the USD-CAD finally broke through that support couple of months ago. However, the pace of the sell off was very slow and accelerated only during the last few trading sessions, pushing the price on Monday to 0.9710.
What it All Means
This is significant, because the 0.9700 level is the last important support on the way to the all time low for the USD-CAD. Looking at the weekly chart, we can see that if this level is broken, there is no other technical obstacle for this pair to test the low of 0.9055 established in 2007.
If the USD-CAD moves through the current support with a relative ease, we can expect the downtrend to continue, perhaps at even faster pace. The ADX, a trend strength indicator, is on the rise, suggesting that the trend is gaining momentum. The weekly MACD shows a negative reading, also pointing lower still. Chances are that the USD-CAD will test the all time low in the near future.